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IPO activity slows in response to market caution

IPO activity slows in response to market caution

05/12/2025
Lincoln Marques
IPO activity slows in response to market caution

The global IPO landscape showed signs of life in 2024 following a dramatic downturn in 2023, but early 2025 has introduced a new sense of hesitation among issuers and investors alike. Market participants who had hoped for a sustained recovery now find themselves navigating a risk-averse environment for both investors and companies considering public listings. As the dust settles on headline-grabbing offerings, the broader market has taken a step back, reflecting deeper uncertainties in macroeconomic policy and sector performance.

Global Recovery and Early 2025 Retrenchment

After global IPO proceeds climbed from US$120.13 billion in 2023 to US$126.10 billion in 2024, expectations were high for 2025. January delivered a boost, with deal count rising from 102 in January 2024 to 117, and proceeds jumping from US$6.86 billion to US$9.81 billion. Yet, optimism waned quickly as caution prevailed in subsequent months, particularly in the U.S.

Through mid-June 2025, the U.S. registered just 84 IPOs—the lowest number since 2022—compared with 150 in mid-2024 and 109 in 2023. Proceeds totaled roughly US$13 billion in the same period, a stark contrast to the record US$140 billion raised by mid-2021. Investors, fatigued by volatility and wary of policy shifts, have prioritized stability over headline‐grabbing debut prices.

Regional and Sector Insights

IPO trends vary dramatically by region and industry. In Asia-Pacific, tight regulatory scrutiny in mainland China has driven the weakest deal count in over a decade, while Indonesia’s proceeds plunged to one-fourth of the prior year’s total. Hong Kong bucked the regional trend with a modest recovery, fueled by domestic and cross-border listings.

  • Asia-Pacific markets grapple with regulatory headwinds that dampen issuer enthusiasm.
  • Europe’s IPO pace remains moderate, balancing between growth aspirations and policy uncertainty ahead of elections.
  • U.S. sectors such as logistics, AI, and certain healthcare firms posted slightly stronger performances, yet even large offerings averaged a 1% loss post-debut.

The life sciences sector had been tagged as a potential standout for 2025, but only seven biotech IPOs had priced by mid-June, with no major offerings since February. High listing costs, extended development timelines, and a challenging aftermarket have prompted many firms to postpone or withdraw filings rather than risk underperformance.

Drivers of Market Caution

Several interlocking factors have fueled the slowdown. Persistent inflation and unresolved trade tensions, especially in the U.S., have undercut investor confidence. Meanwhile, the attraction of fixed-income yields means companies must justify valuations with compelling near-term profitability road maps.

  • Ongoing uncertainty about tariff and trade policies keeps issuers on the sidelines.
  • High sensitivity to interest rate changes makes cost of capital a critical decision factor.
  • Volatile macroeconomic signals maintain a cautious stance among institutional backers.

Companies without clear short-term paths to profitability find themselves waiting for market conditions to stabilize. The VIX index may have dipped below 20 in early 2025, but broader risk aversion persists as geopolitical flashpoints and policy shifts remain unresolved.

Investor Behavior and Historical Comparisons

Investors and issuers have adopted a pronounced wait-and-see stance by investors. The gap between high-profile deals—such as Venture Global’s US$1.75 billion raise or Ferrari’s US$818 million Amsterdam listing—and the broader market underscores a widening divide between marquee names and everyday issuers. Sponsors like private equity and venture capital firms are now more likely to push deals through, even as traditional corporate IPOs linger in limbo.

By mid-year 2021, U.S. IPO activity reached an all-time high of 1,035 deals and nearly US$140 billion in proceeds. The current pace in 2025 stands at roughly 10% of those peak levels, illustrating how quickly sentiment can shift from exuberance to restraint. The post-COVID rebound of 2024 now looks more like a temporary reprieve than a sustained trend.

Looking Ahead: Outlook and Potential Bounceback

Analysts forecast a slightly above average IPO market for 2025, with expectations of US$45–50 billion in total capital raised and approximately 160 deals, including sponsor-led offerings. If inflation moderates and trade policies stabilize, pent-up demand could drive a surge of postponed filings to market.

Yet, any recovery will be selective. Issuers in sectors with proven revenue models—such as established healthcare companies, logistics platforms, and leading AI enterprises—are best placed to capture investor interest. Firms that demonstrate short horizons to profitability and robust governance practices will stand out in a cautious marketplace.

As companies and investors calibrate their strategies, the IPO market’s near-term trajectory will hinge on broader economic signals. For now, the prevailing mood is one of patience. Firms are timing their offerings to coincide with favorable conditions rather than chasing arbitrary calendar dates.

Conclusion

The slowdown in IPO activity through mid-2025 reflects a market in transition. After the recovery of 2024 and the record highs of 2021, today’s environment demands disciplined execution and transparent value propositions. While macro uncertainties remain, there are early indicators that a more sustainable wave of offerings may emerge once economic and policy frameworks settle.

For issuers and investors alike, success in this climate requires a focus on solid fundamentals, clear communication, and strategic timing. The cautious stance that defines the current slowdown could ultimately pave the way for stronger, more resilient market activity when the next upturn arrives.

Lincoln Marques

About the Author: Lincoln Marques

Lincoln Marques